MH370 Flight Path Model version 16

MH370 Flight Path Model version 16

Richard Godfrey
9th December 2015


I have updated my MH370 Flight Path Model to include a simulation of the Cost Index (CI) at ECON 52, now that the CI has been made available in the latest ATSB report. This updated model is labelled as version 16.0, the preceding version 15.1 having been described here.

The model version 16.0 (Excel spreadsheet, 2.5 MB) may be downloaded by clicking here.

I retained a late final major turn (FMT) starting at 18:37:24 and 15.6 NM before the waypoint IGOGU.

I also retained a step climb to 39,000 feet.

The resultant end point is located at 38.4S 87.7E.

Update 10th December:

Version 16.1 of the Flight Path Model is now available here. Version 16.0 entailed a constant speed being used between ping arcs 6 and 7, whereas a deceleration would be expected (a value of -0.315 knots per second has now been used here in v16.1, in line with Brian Anderson’s analysis).

The resultant end point is now 38.2S 88.0E.

Thanks to Brock McEwen for pointing this out.