Preliminary MH370 Flaperon Failure Analysis

Tom Kenyon
2015 October 15

Update 2015 October 22: A revised version 1.1 of Tom Kenyon’s report is available here, with altered text being indicated by a colored font.

Introduction by Duncan Steel: The flaperon from MH370 found on Réunion is a vital clue with regard to the end location of the aircraft. Most investigations so far have been concentrated on the likely drift path that the flaperon took, and its discovery time (16 months after the aircraft disappeared) and location are consistent with the aircraft having crashed into the southern Indian Ocean in a place (close to the ‘seventh ping arc’) as indicated by the analysis of the Inmarsat data, and the fuel consumption limitations; for example, see this post and the report cited therein.

In terms of how and when the flaperon departed/fell from the aircraft (i.e., whether it was ripped off in-flight, high above the sea, or whether it remained with the aircraft wing until the descent into the ocean), the physical state of the recovered object can render important indications; and those may also tell us more about how and why and when and where the aircraft crashed. For example, as discussed here, the flaperon remaining largely intact apart from its trailing edge apparently having been shredded would appear to be consistent with rapid ‘fluttering’ occurring when the aircraft lost electrical and hydraulic power at high altitude and high speed, when the engines ran out of fuel, the flaperon then being wrenched from its hinges and so falling to the ocean at a lower speed than the main part of the aircraft.

A preliminary analysis of the likely failure mode of the flaperon by Independent Group member Tom Kenyon is now available. In the absence, as of yet, of any published analysis from the official investigators, it is hoped that this report – which may be updated later – will prove of interest to those interested in this topic. Tom’s report occupies 28 pages, in a 7.4 MB PDF.